A recent Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts showed that oil investors have many concerns about market trends, including oversupply, slowing economic growth and tensions in the Middle East, all of which may trigger oil price fluctuations.
In 2023, the average price of North Sea Brent crude oil will be US$80 per barrel, and market demand will reach a record high of 100 million barrels per day. Economists and analysts said that the average price of North Sea Brent crude oil in 2024 is expected to be US$84.43 per barrel.
Norwegian energy consulting company Rystad, shipping intelligence company Kpler, energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie and U.S. financial giant JPMorgan Chase all said that driven by the growth in production of non-OPEC oil-producing countries, oil supply is expected to increase by 1.2 million in 2024~ 1.9 million barrels per day.
Energy analysts at global financial group Macquarie said they expect a quarterly supply glut in 2024. Investors will be closely watching supply data for the first quarter of 2024 to see whether OPEC+ implements its planned voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie analysts said that in order to assess compliance with OPEC+'s voluntary production cuts, January to March 2024 will be a critical period.
Analysts say that despite sanctions, Iranian oil will continue to flow into global markets, pushing down oil prices. Iran's current oil production is 3.4 million barrels per day, but it aims to increase this to 3.6 million barrels per day by March 2024. Non-OPEC oil producers, led by Guyana and the United States, are expected to increase production in 2024, thereby increasing the supply of light, sweet crude oil. In addition, due to OPEC+ production cuts, the supply of high-sulfur crude oil will continue to tighten.
oil market[Dec 25rd, 2023]